BTC IndicatorsProven Cycle Signals

Electrical Cost

Near Production Cost

Estimates the average cost to mine one Bitcoin based on network hashrate, mining hardware efficiency, and electricity costs. Price rarely stays below production cost for long — dips below signal miner capitulation and cycle bottoms.

When Bitcoin's price drops near the red line (mining cost), miners start losing money and shutting down — historically these are cycle bottoms. The further price is above cost, the healthier the market.

(right axis, log)Electrical Cost (USD)
(right axis, log)BTC Price (USD)

Methodology

Cost per BTC = (HashRate × Efficiency × 86400 × ElecRate) / DailyIssuance. Efficiency (J/TH) is estimated from known ASIC generations, interpolated log-linearly. Electricity rate assumed at $0.0635/kWh (global mining average). Smoothed with a 14-day moving average.

Zones

Near Production Cost (< 1.2x)Low Margin (1.2 - 2x)Healthy Margin (2 - 5x)High Margin (> 5x)

Last updated: 2026-03-23 | Data source: CoinMetrics Community