NUPL
HopeNet Unrealized Profit/Loss measures the overall profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders as a fraction of market cap. Derived directly from the MVRV ratio: NUPL = 1 - (1 / MVRV). Positive values mean the network is in aggregate profit; negative values mean aggregate loss.
When NUPL goes negative, most Bitcoin holders are sitting on losses — historically the best time to accumulate. Above 0.75, almost everyone is in profit and cycle tops are near.
Methodology
NUPL = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap = 1 - (1 / MVRV). When MVRV > 1, the market is in net profit (NUPL > 0). When MVRV < 1, the market is in net loss (NUPL < 0). Data sourced from CoinMetrics CapMVRVCur.
Zones
Last updated: 2026-03-23 | Data source: CoinMetrics Community
More Indicators
Supply Crossover
Sigmoid signal tracking profit vs loss holder regimes via MVRV ratio
MVRV Z-Score
Standard deviation of market cap vs realized cap — identifies macro tops and bottoms
Electrical Cost
Estimated mining production cost per BTC — price floor based on hashrate and energy
200WMA Quantile
Where BTC price sits relative to its 200-week MA as a historical percentile
Power Law Oscillator
Where BTC price sits relative to its long-term power law trend as a percentile
Fibonacci Retracement
BTC price vs the 0.618 golden ratio retracement level of each cycle
Ichimoku Cloud
Monthly Tenkan/Kijun death cross — BTC has bottomed 3-4 months after each historical cross
Sharpe Ratio
90-day risk-adjusted returns — extreme negative readings have marked every major cycle bottom
Mayer Multiple
Price / 200-day MA — below 0.6 has marked every generational buying opportunity