Supply Crossover
Profit DominantTracks the transition between profit-dominant and loss-dominant holder regimes using a sigmoid transformation of the MVRV ratio. When profit is high, most holders are in profit (euphoria); when low, most are in loss (capitulation).
When the red line (loss) crosses above the green (profit), most holders are underwater — historically the best accumulation zones. When profit nears 100%, euphoria peaks and tops are near.
Methodology
Applies a sigmoid function to the MVRV ratio: profit = 100 / (1 + exp(-2 * (MVRV - 1.0))). MVRV = 1.0 is breakeven (market cap equals realized cap). Values above 50% indicate a profit-dominant market; below 50% indicates loss-dominant. Loss = 100 - Profit.
Zones
Last updated: 2026-03-23 | Data source: CoinMetrics Community
More Indicators
MVRV Z-Score
Standard deviation of market cap vs realized cap — identifies macro tops and bottoms
Electrical Cost
Estimated mining production cost per BTC — price floor based on hashrate and energy
200WMA Quantile
Where BTC price sits relative to its 200-week MA as a historical percentile
NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss of all holders as a fraction of market cap
Power Law Oscillator
Where BTC price sits relative to its long-term power law trend as a percentile
Fibonacci Retracement
BTC price vs the 0.618 golden ratio retracement level of each cycle
Ichimoku Cloud
Monthly Tenkan/Kijun death cross — BTC has bottomed 3-4 months after each historical cross
Sharpe Ratio
90-day risk-adjusted returns — extreme negative readings have marked every major cycle bottom
Mayer Multiple
Price / 200-day MA — below 0.6 has marked every generational buying opportunity