MVRV Z-Score
Fair ValueThe MVRV Z-Score measures how far Bitcoin's market cap deviates from its realized cap (cost basis of all coins). Extreme highs signal overvaluation and macro tops; values below zero signal undervaluation and macro bottoms.
When the Z-Score drops below 0, Bitcoin is priced below what holders paid on average — historically a strong buy zone. Spikes above 7 have marked every cycle top.
Methodology
Z-Score = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / StdDev(Market Cap). Realized Cap is derived from CoinMetrics MVRV ratio: Realized Cap = Market Cap / MVRV. The standard deviation uses an expanding (all-history) window. Data starts from when CoinMetrics provides MVRV data (~2010).
Zones
Last updated: 2026-03-23 | Data source: CoinMetrics Community
More Indicators
Supply Crossover
Sigmoid signal tracking profit vs loss holder regimes via MVRV ratio
Electrical Cost
Estimated mining production cost per BTC — price floor based on hashrate and energy
200WMA Quantile
Where BTC price sits relative to its 200-week MA as a historical percentile
NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss of all holders as a fraction of market cap
Power Law Oscillator
Where BTC price sits relative to its long-term power law trend as a percentile
Fibonacci Retracement
BTC price vs the 0.618 golden ratio retracement level of each cycle
Ichimoku Cloud
Monthly Tenkan/Kijun death cross — BTC has bottomed 3-4 months after each historical cross
Sharpe Ratio
90-day risk-adjusted returns — extreme negative readings have marked every major cycle bottom
Mayer Multiple
Price / 200-day MA — below 0.6 has marked every generational buying opportunity