Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators

Sigmoid signal tracking profit vs loss holder regimes via MVRV ratio

Standard deviation of market cap vs realized cap — identifies macro tops and bottoms

Estimated mining production cost per BTC — price floor based on hashrate and energy

Where BTC price sits relative to its 200-week MA as a historical percentile

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss of all holders as a fraction of market cap

Where BTC price sits relative to its long-term power law trend as a percentile

BTC price vs the 0.618 golden ratio retracement level of each cycle

Monthly Tenkan/Kijun death cross — BTC has bottomed 3-4 months after each historical cross

90-day risk-adjusted returns — extreme negative readings have marked every major cycle bottom

Price / 200-day MA — below 0.6 has marked every generational buying opportunity